Making Decisions When Evidence is Unclear
Course Overview
Policies and programs rarely operate under ideal conditions. Leaders and program teams often move forward with incomplete evidence, shifting priorities, and operational constraints. Political and economic conditions may also change along the way.
These realities make it harder to assess whether policies are working as intended. They also complicate decisions about how to adapt implementation and what actions to take when results remain unclear.
This course explores how policies and programs unfold in real-world settings shaped by ambiguity, risk, and disruption. Participants will examine how uncertainty influences implementation choices, frontline decision-making, stakeholder behavior, and program outcomes.
The course emphasizes practical approaches. Participants will learn how to compare policy options, anticipate risks, and use evidence to guide decisions as programs evolve.
A central focus is learning to distinguish between implementation challenges and weaknesses in policy or program design. Through examples and discussion, participants will explore how evidence and feedback can inform adaptation. They will learn how to refine program delivery and make decisions even when certainty is low and stakes are high.
By the end of the session, participants will better understand how to evaluate policy implementation in uncertain environments. They will also learn how to use evidence to support stronger program and funding decisions..
What You Will Learn
Participants will explore how uncertainty shapes policy and program implementation and how evidence can support better decisions in complex environments. The course examines how organizations weigh policy alternatives, assess risks, and adapt strategies when evidence is incomplete or conditions are changing.
Participants will also learn practical ways to interpret implementation results, including how to distinguish between challenges related to program design and those related to implementation. By the end of the course, participants will be better equipped to use evidence, feedback loops, and structured decision approaches to support transparent and accountable decision-making in dynamic policy environments.
Course Format
This course is offered as a live, instructor-led virtual session (3 hours) or as a half-day in-person workshop. The session combines short presentations, applied examples, and facilitated discussion.
Participants will review real-world implementation scenarios and discuss how evidence can be used to guide policy and program decisions when conditions are uncertain or evolving.
Who Should Attend
This course is ideal for:
- Federal, state, and local government staff involved in policy or program implementation
- Nonprofit and foundation leaders overseeing program delivery
- Policy analysts, program managers, and implementation teams
- Evaluators and learning officers supporting adaptive management
Prerequisites
Participants should have basic familiarity with public policy, program implementation, or evaluation. No specialized technical background is required.

Instructor: Susan Jenkins
